Oil Negativity, Geopolitics, and Power

November 20, 2025

Recorded November 17th 2025 and October 16th, 2025

Episode 145 of the PetroNerds podcast is another deep dive conversation with Trisha Curtis on the state of oil prices, natural gas and AI, electricity prices, geopolitics, OPEC Plus and Saudi Arabia, and Russia and China.

This is Trisha Curtis’ keynote address to Whitley Penn’s Fueling the Future Dallas, Texas conference on October 16th, 2025. Trisha is joined by the moderator of the fireside chat, Buffie Campbell, Director at Whitley Penn.

Before this keynote, Trisha provides PetroNerds listeners with a fresh market update recorded on November 17th, 2025 covering the recent rise in natural gas prices and LNG exports, oil prices, Japan and China rift, and the Fed.

The keynote address and conversation starts with the negativity surrounding oil prices and state of the market, why oil prices keep trading lower, US oil production vs. sentiment and risks in the auto market and the US and global economy. Trisha talks about the poor understanding of China’s economy and oil demand, oil on the water, ceasefire in Gaza, and Trump’s potential meeting with Putin, peak shale vs. plateau shale, and $67/barrel WTI average for 2025.

Buffie asks Trisha about policies and “Drill Baby Drill” and Trisha discusses rigs, lateral lengths, horsepower, and efficiencies. She talks about the Administration’s desire for low oil prices, AI and infrastructure needs and electricity prices, and says “we do not have a problem with natural gas supply, we have a problem getting it into the grid.” Trisha discusses electricity prices in the US vs. the rest of the world, specifically China and Germany.

She gets into OPEC Plus production increases and Saudi Arabia, whether they understand US shale, Iraq and Iran, and sanctioning Russia. She talks about how US oil production gives the US incredible geopolitical opportunity and flexibility. Buffie asks Trisha about geopolitics and China and Trisha discusses Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian crude, China and rare earth minerals, risks and lessons from Russia, US vs. China refining capacity, and refining rare earths.

Buffie asks Trisha about AI and job layoffs and the oil and gas industry layoffs. Trisha explains how important it is to develop infrastructure for natural gas from the wellhead to end consumption, the hype around AI and power demand, and the hotness of the midstream. In Q&A Trisha talks about wind and solar, coal, access to energy and human rights abuses, refining margins, and national security.