$90 Oil and the Economy

Recorded September 18, 2023

Episode 94 for the PetroNerds podcast is an emergency recording on the sharp rise in oil prices and the extended Saudi “lollipop” cut of 1 mbd, helping to tighten supplies available on the market. Trisha Curtis takes listeners through the global oil market and global economy in this must listen to episode. WTI was $92.42, Brent $94.73, HH $2.73, and 30 year mortgages are between 7.5-8 percent on the day of recording.

Traders and hedge funds who were sitting on the sidelines are plowing into the market and helping to move up oil prices. Saudi production is down below 9 mbd, Russian production is still hovering around 11 mbd, but their refined product exports are down, Iranian production is up above 3 mbd, and US production is close to hitting pre-COVID all time highs of 13 mbd. US production currently stands at 12.84 mbd. Trisha walks listeners through global supply, global demand, refining capacity, lost refining capacity in the US, US LNG and the EU, and the serious problems with ESG and the energy transition.

She talks about oil supply and oil demand and oil prices in the context of the economy and the health of the US and global consumer and the pain these high oil prices are having and will have. She gets into pent up demand in China and the US post COVID and the apparent resiliency of the consumer. Trisha talks about Chris Wright’s appearance and comments on Last Call and the need to push back on ESG so capital can flow to operators who want to drill and produce oil and increase output.

She has a massive rant on ESG, EU, and LNG and talks about the UAW (United Auto Workers union) strikes and the demands for a massive pay increase of 40 percent plus a 4 day work week being absolutely insane and bad for the US economy, US jobs, and US business. She discusses Joe Biden’s pro Union and pro inflationary positions and his poor economic policies and she explains the fiscal lags and wage price spirals that these strikes can induce.

She also talks about the Saudi Oil Minister’s comments at the World Petroleum Congress and the IEA’s found (again) belief that oil, natural gas, and coal demand will soon peak. Trisha closes the PetroNerds podcast with China’s new map and their 10 dash line and Chinese oil demand and economic sentiment.

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